Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
